As tourism to Spain grows, Spaniards staying home: study finds continuing decrease in 'outbound' travel

Spain's economy may be on the rebound, but the ripple effects from the crash that began in 2008continued to impact negatively on outbound tourism during 2013. 

Spanish consumers seem more focused on debt reduction and saving than ever before. Reducing and eliminating non-essential spending, including travel, is now the Spanish way, according to
Euromonitor International.

The new report, "Tourism Flows Outbound in Spain," finds that Spaniard's visiting European countries continued to decrease in 2013 and the number of visitors on long haul destinations declined as well. 

About 60% of departures in Spain are made during the summer holidays, with Easter, Christmas (although traditionally spent with the family), New Year’s and national holidays accounting for most of the remaining 40%.

Read more here.

Spain Sets Europe's Unemployment Record, But Remains Economic Engine

By Lauren Frayer.

With southern Europe struggling under public debt, inflation and scant growth, Spain has broken a European record for unemployment.  More than one in five Spaniards are out of work, posing a threat to quick recovery for southern Europe's biggest economy, and the region as a whole.     

More than one in five working-age Spaniards are unemployed - more than in any other country in Europe.  Spain's jobless rate has hit a 15-year high, nearly double the figure in neighboring Portugal.     

But many Spaniards do not believe that number is accurate.  Retiree Luis Cases says that in his hometown of Valencia, it feels like 95 percent of people are out of work.

"The people I know, it's 95 percent, no work," he said.  "It's a bad situation for young people - and old men."

Cases describes what he thinks of the official jobless rate of 21.3 percent.

"No, rubbish!  The government says rubbish!  No, no, it's more, more, more,"  he said.  "It's very, very difficult.  There's no money.  The young want to get married, have children and house.  But where is the money?"

Spain is southern Europe's economic engine, and is in better shape to survive the global economic crisis than its neighbors.  Ailing Portugal and Greece have asked for European bailouts, along with Ireland.  But those countries have far fewer people out of work, raising the question of whether Spain's jobless rate is accurate, and what role unemployment actually plays in a country's economic well-being.

Aroa Lopez, from Madrid, says she thinks the Spanish government figure is too high, because many Spaniards collect unemployment benefits but still work at restaurants or other jobs where they are paid in cash.

"So many people take this money," she said.  "It's difficult, because the government, when you don't have a job, pay you around two or three years.  The government pays you, and it's very easy.  So many people take the government money and have another job."

Vanessa Rossi, an economist at London's Chatham House think tank, acknowledges that the way governments calculate unemployment data could be problematic.  While Portugal and Greece tend to under-report their jobless numbers, Spain may be doing just the opposite.      

"The Spanish unemployment rate might actually be slightly lower than these figures," she said.  "That's quite in contrast to many other countries that have the opposite problem - they under-report unemployment."

The Greek jobless rate is 15 percent - still a national record.  Portugal's is around 11 percent.  That is nearly half the rate in Spain, but unemployment has still hit Greece and Portugal harder.  Rossi says it is because in Spain, high unemployment has long been a fact of life, even when the economy is booming.  She says the remarkable thing is how low Spain's unemployment got a few years ago, during a huge construction boom - not how high it is now.   

"In a sense, Spain's reverted to its previous model.  It's not that it's unusual compared to its history, it's actually quite usual," she said.  "And it's all the usual problems that were there before that property splurge."

The question is why Spain's unemployment has always been high, compared to the rest of southern Europe.  Rossi offers one theory.     

"It seems to be partly a structural issue in the way the employment laws operate," she said.  "There's a reluctance to give people full employment.  There are relatively few fixed jobs with full employment security."

She says Greece and Portugal have slightly different labor laws that do not end up exacerbating unemployment.  But Rossi says Spain is still in better financial shape overall.

"In relation to the economy, I think it [Spain] could start to look a little livelier, and it need not go into the crisis that we've seen in Portugal, because the finances are a bit better," he said.  "But that doesn't mean that you can get away from this unemployment problem that's been so persistent."

That persistent problem is on the minds of recent college graduates like Laura Lopez, who studied to be a teacher but now can't find a job.     

"Last year, I finished my degree, but I couldn't find a job," she said. "So I have to define my life in other things."

Lopez says she and her friends are all under-employed, working in restaurants or part-time, even though they have university degrees.  Such stories are common across southern Europe.  And none of them is counted in official unemployment figures.

Voice of America. 

Spanish judge orders 25-year-old who sued parents for inadequate support to leave the family home

Website for this image

So, it has come to this: if parents can't push children out of the nest, the courts will. Or, at least that is what happened recently in Malaga, Spain.

According to newspaper reports, a Family Court judge has given what Spaniards refer to as a 'ni-ni' (neither works, neither studies) one month to leave the family home and strike out on his own. The case came before the judge because the 25-year sued his parents after they refused to add 400 euros a month to the support they already were providing, which included not only a free place to live and all the food he could eat, but also making his 235 euro car payment each month!

Now don't start feeling too sorry for this poor little abandoned 'kid' -- the judge gave him 30 days to move, and ordered the parents to provide him with 200 euros a month for the next two years.

Amazingly, this is not the first such case in Spain. Last summer a university student from the town of Lugo sued her parents because she felt that the 600 euros a month they were giving her was not enough, and that 800 was more along the lines of what she deserved. (Since she was studying at university, she doesn't qualify for the 'ni-ni' label, but I believe 'ingrato,' the Spanish word for ingrate, sounds apt.) In 2007, a 22 year old in Seville asked the courts to force his parents to increase his monthly allowance by 150 euros -- even though his father was unemployed at the time! In both of these lawsuits, the judges declined the young person's request. However, this latest case is the first time a judge has ruled that a 'ni-ni' should live on his own.

"There is no objective need to maintain someone who is a 'ni-ni' by choice, but someone who is truly unable to work or study should be able to count on family support," the family's attorney told the newspaper, La Razon.

Psychologist Javier Urra told the paper that, "Spain is a country where children live an unusually long time in the homes of their parents." In fact, "before the economic crisis, they were not leaving until 34 years of age." However, in Nordic countries "they push them to leave home and find a job early. " He added that issues "such as access to housing in our country make the situation particularly complicated. "

Although there is much written about the Spanish 'ni-ni' phenomenon, the Youth Institute of Spain's Ministry of Health claims that only 1% of young adults (80,358) neither work nor study, while a report from the University of the Basque Country puts it a bit higher at 5.6%. And among them are the young man in Malaga and his predecessor in Seville who have taken not working and not studying while living off of one's parents to the next level by actually suing for the right to ni-ni; I'd say the English language has a perfect name for them -- ninnies.

Carloz

Cross posted on Newsvine.

Sources:

Un juez obliga a un joven «ni-ni» a dejar la casa familiar (Judge obliges young 'ni-ni' to leave the family home), La Razon, 22 April 2011

Una universitaria denuncia a sus padres en el juzgado para exigirles 800 euros al mes (University student takes parents to court to demand 800 euros a month), La Voz de Galica, 26 June 2010

Un juez rechaza la petición de un joven de 22 años de que sus padres le suban 'la paga' (Judge rejects 22-year-old's petition that his parents increase his allowance), El Mundo, 15 March 2007

Adiós al mito de la Generación ni-ni (Goodby to the Generation ni-ni myth), Noticias de Navarra, 26 April 2011

Spain behind the eight-ball in 2008

It looks like eight is Spain's number lately, for better or for worse. On the better side, that number was Spain's "well-being" ranking among 22 European countries the New Economics Foundation's 2008 National Accounts of Well-being report. Indeed, Spain and Cyprus were the only Mediterranean countries to make the top 10.

According to the NEF, governments should directly and regularly measure people’s subjective well-being: their experiences, feelings and perceptions of how their lives are going, as a new way of assessing societal progress, instead of only focusing on economic indicators. So according to this measure, Spain is not doing too bad. Well, that's good to know, especially in view of the worse side of number 8.

Spain's unemployment rate rose to an eight-year record at the end of 2008 -- at 14%, the highest rate in the European Union. Spain's high unemployment rate, helped to bring the the overall Eurozone unemployment rate up in December to ques what -- 8%.

I think these statistics sum up 2008 in Spain, a mix of better and worse -- as in much of the world. However, people here seem generally positive and hoping for a better year without so much time "behind the eight ball."

Suerte amig@s,

Carloz

Is Pedro Solbes misreading, or misleading? That is the question.

In case anyone who follows this blog hasn't guessed by now, I have very little faith in Spain's Economy Minister, Pedro Solbes -- not that I have much faith in any of his colleagues, either. However, he holds a special place in my disdain because of what can only be his misreading of, or misleading about the economy

When he served in Brussels as European Commissioner for Economic & Financial Affairs (1999-2004), he denied that the introduction of the euro contributed to inflation. Then in December 2007 he said, "When I was in Brussels, I said the opposite, but now I can say that the euro has had an inflationary effect on low cost items." Was that a misreading, or was he misleading?

At that same time he predicted that Spain's inflation rate, which was 4.1%, would go below 3% by March 2008. Solbes was wrong again, as by April it had risen to 4.6%. By May it was 4.7%. Misreading, or misleading?

Solbes continued to deny there was an economic crisis through the first half of 2008, as people lost jobs, the cost of living soared, the real estate bubble burst, and the economy just generally went into the toilet. In May Solbes equated "crisis" with "recession," and added, "To talk about recession is exaggerated." Misreading, or misleading?

It seemed like he might be ready to admit the truth when it was leaked to the media that he used the word "crisis" in a June 10th closed door session of parliament. However, on June 11th he qualified that by saying, “Yesterday, the only thing I said was that we need to prepare for a crisis, but I never talked about 'the crisis.'” The official line from the Socialist Party spokesperson, José Antonio Alonso, was that Solbes had had a “slip of the tongue.” Misreading, or misleading?

Then to muddy the water further, he said on June 13th that while the Spanish economy was experiencing an “abrupt adjustment” he didn't use the word “crisis” because that would be "abusing a false affirmation. Crisis means that everything is going badly and that every other thing is going well, neither one thing or the other.” Misreading, or misleading?

By July he had finally started using the "C" word publicly, even declaring in one interview, "For me, this is the most complex crisis we have ever experienced because of the number of factors that are on the table." But around then he had moved on to avoiding the "R" word. In an interview in August he said, "We think there will be very low or flat growth in the coming quarters, but we are not thinking of a recession." Misleading, or misreading?

Last summer Solbes and Company forecast that Spain would avoid recession and that the GDP would actually grow a full 1%. This was very different from what most other economists were saying. Then yesterday he and the Government belatedly acknowledged the country is in a recession when he announced that his ministry was changing the forecast from one of GDP growth to one with a 1.6% drop. Misreading, or misleading?

Of course, there are still many non-government economists who are not as confident as Solbes, with some predicting the Spanish economy will contract as much as 3% this year. Neither the dire views of others, nor his lousy performance so far, seem to have given him pause. Indeed, while finally admitting he was wrong yesterday, he also had the temerity to make yet another prediction. According to his crystal ball (which must be what he uses in lieu of economic theory), 2009 will see the worst of the crisis, 2010 will witness GDP growth of 1.2%, and 2011 will experience a jump up to 2.6%. Misreading, or misleading?

Of course, people here say that Solbes is only delivering the information Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero wants him to, and I don't doubt it for a second. Certainly the buck stops with Zapatero, but it would be nice to have an Economy Minister who told the PM and the people what they needed to hear.

Instead what is it exactly that he offers? Is it misreading, or misleading? Double-speaking, or misspeaking? Denying, or lying? Call it what you will, but it does not often resemble the truth.

Finally, one more question: if you were running a business, would you hire someone with a track record like this?

Dios nos ayude, amig@s,

Carloz

One Year On!

It's been a little more than a year since I started blogging, so I thought I'd provide updates on some of the topics I've written posts about:

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BICING

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I've written a bit about Bicing, which also celebrated it's first year anniversary recently. Well, today's El País newspaper ran an article about the service's increasing growing pains: El Bicing genera 600 reclamaciones diarias por mal funcionamiento. (Bicing receives 600 complaints a day about technical problems.)
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This was based on information included in a report that City Hall made public yesterday, but which apparently had been making the rounds of municipal offices for a while. Perhaps the most damning part of the report was the revelation that a majority of users are dissatisfied with the functioning of the computerized stations where bikes are parked. Aside from some stations habitually not having bikes available, and others seeming to hardly ever have empty spaces for leaving-off a bicycle, other problems include system overloads which cause the whole computer network to fail. When this happens bikes cannot be removed from the stations and bikes that are left-off are not recognized as having been returned. Therefore, some people have been wrongly penalized for returning bikes late or fined for not returning bikes at all.

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More than 150,000 people currently subscribe to Bicing. Apparently a total of over 250,000 people have joined the program in the last 14 months, but more than 150 people drop out each month. Today Bicing has 367 stations and a fleet of 5,500 bicycles, with about 28 members for each bike. The plan is to grow the program to 6,000 bikes and 400 stations by September and then to postpone more growth until the operation of the service can be improved, for example, by installing a back up computer system to take over when the main one goes down.

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Who will pay for the improvements? The city will, although Clear Channel, the company that has the contract to run Bicing, was fined 22,000 euros this past January for not meeting the minimum quality indices that had been agreed to.

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Other statistics from the report included:

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- An average of 39,500 trips daily - 7.8 per bicycle.
- Each bicycle is ridden some 10,000 kilometers per year.
- As of last June 18, users had completed a total of 50,178 trips - 9.2 per bicycle.
- An average of six traffic accidents involving Bicing users are registered each month.
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If you are a Bicing user and want to have your voice heard, you can participate in a survey being conducted by researchers with Telefónica Investigación y Desarrollo (Research and Development) and the University of Washington. Click here to take the survey, which is available in English, Spanish and Catalan.

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By the way, I still hold a generally positive view of Bicing and am so glad that it exists. While not even close to perfect, it certainly has been a positive addition to my life -- and I bet it's better than anything they have in Paris!

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NEWSPAPERS / PERIÓDICOS
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A new daily newspaper appeared on the Spanish scene this past year. Público hit the stands in September, with the aim of attracting left of center readers in the 25-45 year old age group. The editor is 32 year old Ignacio Escolar, who is the son of journalist Arsenio Escolar, the editor of the free daily 20 minutos. The younger Escolar previously worked in television, radio and as a musician in the groups Meteostat and Dedcodek. He's also writes a popular blog called Escolanet.

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Of course, Público seems to be going head to head with El País, the country's other left leaning daily, which bills itself as, “the global Spanish language newspaper.” (El periódioco global en español) One of El País' directors, Juan Luis Cebrián, told the New York Times and International Herald Tribune, "We don't even see them as a competitor. It's like comparing The New York Times and The New York Post." So, I guess it was just a coincidence that the publishers of El País felt the need to revamp the paper last October, with the stated purpose of appealing to younger readers.

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Well, I still like El País, but I find that I like Público, too, and have been buying it pretty frequently. Anecodotically, I can say that many people I know seem to be doing the same.
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THE SUMMER SOLSTICE AND LA NOCHE DE SAN JUAN
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Another summer solstice / noche de San Juan came and went yesterday. Fantastic fireworks and thousands of party goers on Barcelona's streets and beaches. I read today that the local police estimated that there were 85,000 people on the city's “playas” last night. Of course the symbol of the year's shortest night is the bonfire, and so flames and firecrackers colored my neighborhood as usual, as well as all of Barcelona.

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However, it's not just Barcelona that celebrates la noche de San Juan. In towns in the Pyrenees there were traditional torchlight processions, Madrid saw urban bonfires and on Spain's islands there was fireside dancing in the moonlight.

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In Alicante, where one of the biggest San Juan festivals is held, the dazzling climax of the festivities won't happen until tonight. Larger than life wooden and paper maché figures are built by neighborhood associations as part of a city-wide competition and then are burnt to the ground at midnight on the 24th, setting the entire city aglow. What a way to welcome in the summer!
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THE ECONOMY
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Well, PM Zapatero couldn't quite bring himself to use the “c” word but at least he stopped using some of his favorite euphemisms (difficult scenario, period of adjustment) when he finally admitted yesterday that Spain's economy was in serious trouble. He couldn't let go of one ambiguity, however -- economic deceleration. At least he shuffled it along from a “deep deceleration ” to a “strong deceleration -- almost a sudden stop.”
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Better late than never? We'll have to wait and see if the 21 new proposals his government plans to make to address the CRISIS will do any good. So far the reaction has been muted to negative, with the governor of the Bank of Spain describing them as "insufficient." I wonder if that was a euphemism?
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Chao amig@s,
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Carloz

Crisis? What crisis?

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero finally presented his new government's economic plan on Saturday, while avoiding saying anything that might make it sound like Spain is facing serious economic problems. I think the reaction published in this Sunday's El País hit the nail on the head:

“Crisis? What crisis? 'A difficult scenario', 'a difficult period of adjustment' or 'a deep deceleration of the economy'. These are some of the terms the president of the government, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, employed yesterday when referring to the current state of Spain's economy, which receives a blow each time a new economic indicator is revealed. The president attributes the deterioration to external factors (increased oil and food prices). Still, he announced a package of 'structural reforms' to make things more tolerable. There is nothing new in this battery of urgent measures.

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Unemployment is on the rise, inflation has gotten out of control, sales of homes have collapsed, sales of cars cannot even get off the ground, and the gross domestic product is losing wind. But Zapatero resists thinking that this is a crisis situation...

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The measures were neither new nor quantified. ...one consists of a 30% reduction of administrative charges that businesses bear. [However,] This was an action that had been announced in April of 2007...with the aim of lowering bureaucratic costs by 2012... ...other plans [included enhancing] railway competition and energy sharing with France.”

And this less than enthusiastic coverage was from a news organization sympathetic to Zapatero's socialist party! Imagine what the center and right leaning media wrote!!

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Most distressing to me was the revelation that this “plan” is to be incorporated into a national program of reforms which will be presented to the European Commission in October. A lot can happen between now and October!! What is the government planning on doing to address the so-called “difficult scenario” before then -- more thumb twiddling?!!!

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Perhaps the most interesting part of the El País report was the following:

“Microphones are treacherous -- above all when they are on without the speakers' knowledge. That was the case yesterday with the President of the Government, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, and the owner of Planeta Publishing Corp., José Manuel Lara, who before the presentation made several recommendations regarding the crisis, as recorded by Channel Four:

Lara: 'For the time being, [the crisis] is not going to stop. I am afraid it's going to get worse in the second half of the year. That's what I fear.'

Zapatero: 'It's not clear'

Lara: 'I would advise that you not burn yourself...'

Zapatero: 'What?'

Lara: 'You shouldn't speak; have [Finance Minister] Solbes speak. You shouldn't burn yourself, because it could look bad as president'.

Zapatero: 'There is another factor you have to consider. That is, if you instill a lot of pessimism, if you don't say anything positive...'

Lara (interrupting him) : 'No, no, you make the crisis worse, yes, yes. ..'

Zapatero: 'That's what we're doing.'

Lara: '...but let the the Economy Minister, the Industry Minister affect optimism and the president be reserved. That's what I mean.' ”

Well, it seems we get a lot of optimism from Zapatero, Solbes and others, but not much action. Meanwhile, other Sunday headlines about the economy were not so optimistic: "The worst is yet to come" , "Everything about the crisis" , and one headline which quoted the President of the European Bank, "We must stay alert, now is not the time for complacency." It sounds like others believe that optimistic talk is not realistic.

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To be fair, from this consumer's viewpoint there was at least one good piece of news that came out this weekend: Spain's state-regulated electricity prices will not rise by the 11.3 percent the industry was hoping for. During an interview with the radio network Cadena Ser, Zapatero said the increase would be close to the rise in inflation. "The National Energy Commission proposal is not going to be adopted by the Government of Spain," he stated. Spain's inflation hit a record high of 4.7 percent in May, so I am hoping rates won't go up much more than 5%. If that's what happens, many of us in Spain will let out a “Phew!” of relief while bracing ourselves for whatever comes next in this non-crisis that the government seems dead set on being so upbeat about.

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Hasta luego amig@s,
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Carloz

Bad news: Barcelona 20; Madrid 24

This was the "score" that made headlines here last week, but it wasn't soccer results -- it was about how expensive the two major Spanish cities have become. So, "Barcelona, tan cara como Nueva York" ("Barcelona, as expensive as New York") screamed the front page of Barcelona's La Vanguardia newspaper on March 19th.
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Sure enough, according to the latest "Prices and Earnings: comparison of purchasing power around the globe" report by the Swiss banking firm UBS, Barcelona is the 20th most expensive city in the world, while New York City is 18th. Madrid comes in at number 24. (FYI, the 5 most expensive cities according to USB are Oslo, Copenhagen, London, Dublin and Zurich -- in that order.)
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However, looking a little closer at the data, one can see that this first list, referred to as the "Prices" list has two columns -- one including rent costs and the other not. Therefore, according to UBS, Barcelona is the 20th most expensive city in the world for visitors, and Madrid number 24, etc.
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For a look at the cost of living in a city, one needs to look at the second column, which includes rent costs. Here Barcelona is ranked as the 26th most expensive city to live in, Madrid number 22 and New York City number 5. So, saying Barcelona is as expensive as New York city could be considered stretching things a bit -- but it certainly isn't cheap anymore! (By the way, according to this list, the most expensive city to live in is London followed by Oslo, Dublin and Copenhagen.)
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Another list in the report is called, "Domestic purchasing power including rent prices." Here Barcelona is ranked number 24, Madrid goes down to 30 and New York comes in at number 22. (The five most expensive cities in this grouping are Copenhagen, Zurich, Berlin, Geneva and Frankfurt.)
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Here are a few interesting quotes from the report:

• "The euro has continued its extraordinary ascent."


• "...Eurozone cities are even more expensive."


• "In 2006, Barcelona and Hong Kong were similarly costly. Now the Catalonian port city is 22% more expensive than the Chinese one."

Well, it seems from this report that Europe is the most expensive part of the world to live in today. As for the Euro, I have definitely seen a substantial increase in the cost of living since it was introduced in 2001. And I can personally attest to how much more it costs me to live in Barcelona than it did in previous years.
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In 2005 someone on a forum about life in Spain asked me how much I usually spent on groceries and sundries. Since I keep my supermarket receipts that was easy for me to answer -- at the time it was typically between 120 and 130 euros a month. Looking at current receipts, I can say that today I regularly spend between 165 and 175 a month.
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I need to mention that I am single and relatively frugal. Certainly there are single people who spend less than me on groceries and such, but there are probably many more who spend a greater amount than I do to eat each month.
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In closing, let me mention another report that made the news this week: Personal Income and the Risk of Poverty in Catalonia by IDES-CAT, the Statistical Institute of Catalonia. According to this study, 19% of the Catalan population falls beneath the poverty threshold. This means that 19 out of every 100 people living in Catalonia live on less than 689 euros a month!
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While I know many "mileruistas" who struggle by on about 1,000 euros a month, it must be incredibly difficult to get by on less than 689 -- especially on one's own. Sharing an apartment would be a must on such an income. Indeed, it is for many people above the poverty level.
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IDES-CAT also reported the following:

• 30% of people surveyed reported that they had difficulty making ends meet each month;
• only 4 out of ten persons surveyed stated that they had NO difficulty making ends meet;
• income is 22.3% lower in households headed by women;
• households that suffer the most economically are those made up of foreigners and those with divorced or separated heads of households;

And on that cheery note, I need to head out to do my weekly marketing.
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Chao amig@s,
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Carloz

It's election time!

Not the US election, but the Spanish election. On March 9 Spaniards will go to the polls to vote for Parliament -- 350 seats in the lower chamber, the Congress of Deputies ,and 208 seats in the upper chamber, the Senate. The make-up of the Parliament determines which party (or which coalition of parties) selects the Prime Minister, who is also referred to as the President of the Government.
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The two major parties are the conservative PP (Partido Popular - Popular Party), led by Mariano Rajoy and the PSOE (Partido Socialista Obrero Español - Spanish Socialist Workers Party), led by the current Prime Minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero. Other parties include:the United Left (IU), Convergence and Union (CiU), the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), and the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV).
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Compared to the USA, campaigns in Spain are relatively brief -- thank God! While there is plenty of maneuvering and posturing for a few months before the election, advertisements are only allowed during an officially designated campaign period. For example, on January 14 of this year the Spanish government approved the dissolution of Parliament and called for general elections on March 9. The official electoral campaign runs from February 22 until March 7.
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However, before the advertising begins parties issue statements, candidates make promises, polls are conducted and the media covers it all. So far the PSOE has promised to a 400 euro tax rebate for all citizens, while the PP has said it would require immigrants to sign a "contract" promising to learn Spanish, adapt to the culture and traditions of Spain and obey the nations laws. Both parties promise more nurseries and pre-schools, higher pensions and to plant trees to combat climate change. (The PSOE was the first to come up with the tree offer, and said it would plant 45 million trees nationwide. Last week the PP upped the ante by promising to plant 500 million! So, either way, Spain will be greener by 2012, right? Yeah, right!)
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As for controversy, well, the Spanish Catholic Church got into the act by issuing a letter telling its members not to vote for parties that support abortion rights and gay marriage -- in other words, don't vote for the PSOE. (The Zapatero government introduced full gay marriage in Spain in 2005. The PP has said it does not intend to overturn it.) The Government was so bothered by the Spanish Bishop's Conference intrusion into the political process that it had its ambassador to the Vatican make a formal complaint. (The Pope has yet to respond -- and if he does, I'll bet it's with a similar letter of his own.)
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The economy is a major issue and will surely affect the outcome. The Spanish housing market bubble is deflating, if not exactly bursting, with prices beginning to fall; price increases for basic necessities have been sharp; unemployment is rising; and because of world-wide economic instability, Spaniards seem to be a little jittery in general. This has been a rather recent turn around, coming after a few years of steady economic growth.
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This change in exonomic fortunes probably has done more than anything else to allow the PP to cut into the PSOE's lead in the polls. A month ago, the PSOE was widely seen as having the best chance at victory. Now, according to one major survey reported on in today's El Pais, the PSOE has only a 2.9% lead over the PP.
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So, who will win? ¿Quien sabe?